F5 Data and My Thoughts

This page is now INACTIVE until the next Winter Threat for Kentucky.

3/13/09:
Ended up with 2.5-3" at Herrington Lake in Boyle County and about that where I went in Mercer County tonight.

Despite some higher reports the average looks to be like the NWS predicted at the last minute of 1-3 across the majority of the region. I must admit my expectation was generally around 1" some 24 hours ago. Thats not so far fetched when your outlooking prior to the event and not during so I still trust the ole F5 data. Chris by far had the best call 24 hours ago by just predicting accumulating snow without amounts. These near spring systems can surprise ya a little.

Luckily all roads I traveled on were mostly clear with a little slush on side roads and 30* air temp.

Please scroll thru the entire page.

Below GFS (F5) Check timestamps.

NAM (F5) Check timestamp.

Video below is a little painful to listen to.

MICHAEL'S OUTLOOK

This is for the period Thursday- Friday 12th&13th

Thursday, March 12, 2009 12:46:30 AM:

This morning the NAM suggest a light wintry mix across mostly the southern and eastern areas of Ky. for Thursday into Friday. This latest info also has much lighter amounts than yesterday. Generally maximum amounts of 1" and only in eastern Ky. The radar and model match up very well at time of this typing. GFS generally has an inch south of I-64 and east of 65. Historically the NAM is to light on precip and the GFS is to heavy. Taking all this into consideration here is my updated Wintry Weather Outlook for Thur.-Fri.

There will be a mix of precipitation with total accums as follows:

REGIONS 1, 2, 3 and 4: Less than 1"

REGIONS 5, 6 and 7: Around 1" . The greatest liklihood and highest totals will be Region 6.

No further updates on this system planned.

Current weather to the sw of Ky. along with the GFS and NAM point to a bout of light precip across Ky on Thursday into Friday. Recent warm days should cut down on total accumulations and help the road situation. Any ice should be minor but this time of the year things can change rapidly so all should stay abreast of latest official forcast. I also will update this outlook sometime in the wee hours of Thursday.

2pm March 11, 2009 Wednesday:

Accums are totals of all frozen precip.

Regions 1 and 4: Up to 1"

Region 2: 1"

Region 3: 2"

Region 5, 6 ,7: 1"-2"

Remember all of these are averages a few isolated higher amounts can occur anywhere.

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