Michaels General Outlook   March 12,2009 Thursday: Concerning the potential mega winter storm for next week. The latest information suggest there will be a major storm somewhere east of the Mississippi River. Where and how big remains a real question as the placement continues to jump around.     Tuesday, March 10, 2009 12:35:26 AM   Storms in Oklahoma formed monday evening as expected and are moving ne. While they continue to be strong no watches are in effect at the time of this posting. The RUC indicates these will continue to weaken thru Tuesday morning. NAM supports that forcast. Thru the day on Tuesday NAM suggest any severe threat stays along or west of the Ohio and Mississippi River. As for the GFS. It seems lost to me right now when it comes to severe weather so for purposes of this discussion I am throwing it out. For Kentucky: I firmly think there will be NO organized severe weather thru Thursday. That does not mean there will not be some strong storms and an isolated severe one or two. (A single severe storm that traverses more than one county DOES NOT qualify as organized or widespread.) Now as for the snow potential. First the temperatures. Safe to say anything in bloom or about to by middle or end of next week will be nipped in the bud. That cold spell will last a few days then a really nice warm up. By then it will be headed toward the end of March but anything could still happen. Next the potential storm and track and amounts. The scenario, a storm of 1012mb develops over northern Arkansas and moves eastward across central Tn. expecting in size and deepening to 1006 then rides the back of the Appalachian mountains continuing to deepen to 1000mb over West Va. and becomes a monster as it moves ene off the mid Atlantic coast. How much you say? This track and strength of storm could produce up to 12" for eastern Ky....5"-8" for northern Ky. and the bluegrass region....3"-5" for areas along and west of I-65........4"-7" southern Ky.......and last but not least 6"-10" southeast Ky. This is not an OUTLOOK/FORCAST only what would happen in that scenario as the model now has it. This would be in the Tuesday-THursday time frame of next week. Monday, 09 March, 2009 5:52:54 PM: Short Update.....................Nothing has yet changed in my thinking for the severe threat for Ky. This afternoon the severe threat as verified by the SPC watches are exactly where they have been anticipated. For Kentucky at this time I continue to think there will be NO organized severe weather thru Thursday. Next update very late monday night. Monday, March 09, 2009 12:04:15 AM: By early monday evening strong storms will fire up across much of Oklahoma, ne Texas into part of Arkansas and move northeasward and weakening overnight. Activity will again begin increasing late Tuesday afternoon in areas west of Kentucky where its thought there will be strong to severe storms. Thru the night on Tuesday the strongest activity should stay along and north and west of the Ohio River. For Kentucky this scenario means: While rain and thunderstorms may occur. No organized severe weather is expected thru Thursday. Next update sometime Monday afternoon. Sunday, 08 March, 2009 11:19:47 PM: We fared pretty much as expected this Sunday. You can read the post below this which was made on Friday night/Sat. morning to compare. There were only a few reports of actual severe weather. Most of those were in areas west of the "bluegrass". Here in Danville I was on my way to dinner when the main line moved thru. Intensly heavy rain, little wind and a few strokes of lightning. Intensity was not even close to severe. Total rain measured was .87". Now thats doing some raining. My outlook was for strong to severe storms for Kentucky with widespread threat being low. Thats exactly what we had. Severe Storm Watches are being over used and are causing people to ignore them. This was a case where special weather statements would have been more warranted. I will update my outlook for the next event later this evening. Saturday, March 07, 2009 1:01:24 AM: The area at highest risk of severe storms thru Sunday morning is central and eastern Oklahoma, extreme NE Texas, extreme SE Kansas and sw and southern Missouri. This area will weaken but shift into the Ohio Valley thru Sunday with a low threat of severe storms. The strongest storms on Sunday should be north of the Ohio River. The "highest risk" area has a low threat of tornadoes but most likely intense thunderstorms. The rest of the area low risk of tornadoes and some strong to severe thunderstorms. Early monday night the high threat of severe thunderstorms return to NE Texas and central and eastern Oklahoma. Presently what this means for Kentucky is: Widespread Severe weather threat is low on Sunday. Strong to severe thunderstorms are likely.

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